Thesis answer
Direct answer
For an investor genuinely willing to own NVDA, the 205 put expiring July 10, 2026 (38 DTE) is the cleanest middle of the field — ~30% annualized yield, ~7% downside cushion to break-even, and ~32-delta sizing. If you want more cushion and less assignment probability, slide to the 200 put. If you want more premium and accept higher assignment odds, the 210 put pays you for a smaller buffer. The 195 is fine but starts giving up too much yield for the extra cushion.
I'd avoid going further OTM than 195 here — the curve flattens fast and you're not getting paid enough for the capital lockup.
Evidence that matters
NVDA last $214.86 (after-hours, off the close), -3.57% on the day. After-hours marks are wider than they'll be at the open, so treat these bids/asks as directional. All candidates are the same July 10 expiry (38 DTE).
Strike
Mid
Delta
Break-even
Cushion to BE
Annualized Yield
OI / Vol
Spread %
$195
$3.53
-0.20
$191.48
-10.9%
~17.4%
774 / 395
4.3%
$200
$4.73
-0.25
$195.28
-9.0%
~22.7%
1,566 / 441
3.2%
$205
$6.28
-0.32
$198.73
-7.4%
~29.4%
612 / 278
4.0%
$210
$8.28
-0.39
$201.73
-6.0%
~37.9%
1,411 / 386
3.0%
Volatility context: 30-day IV ~40%, 60-day ~41%, term structure mildly contangoed. No earnings inside this window (next print is late August). So you're selling clean theta without an event squeeze — that's a meaningful tailwind for premium sellers right now.
Liquidity: All four strikes have healthy OI (>600), tight-ish spreads (3-4% during RTH should compress further), and active volume. No execution concerns on any of these.
Delta as rough assignment proxy: ~20% chance of finishing ITM at 195, ~25% at 200, ~32% at 205, ~39% at 210. Use these as ballpark assignment probabilities, not precise odds.
Risks and counterpoints
⚠ NVDA just dropped 3.57% today — selling puts into weakness can be smart (you're getting paid more for the same strike), but it also means you might be catching a knife. If there's a follow-through leg lower of 5-10%, the 210 strike is in real trouble fast and even the 205 starts pricing in assignment.
⚠ Single-name concentration. A cash-secured put on NVDA at $200 ties up $20,000 of capital per contract. If you already have NVDA exposure (stock, calls, or ETFs like QQQ/SMH that lean heavily into NVDA), this stacks on top of it. Size accordingly.
⚠ The "willing to own" test has to be real. At the 210 strike, assignment puts you in at a net basis of $201.73 — fine if your thesis is intact. But "willing to own at any price" is a story people tell themselves until the print hits. Define the price below which the thesis breaks before you sell the put, not after.
⚠ IV ~40% is elevated but not extreme for NVDA. You're not selling rich vol relative to NVDA's own history — you're selling reasonable vol on a high-beta name. Don't confuse "good premium" with "edge."
What would change the view
• If IV spikes meaningfully (mid-50s+, often around macro events or sector shocks): move further OTM — 185-190 strikes become viable with comparable yield and much better cushion.
• If NVDA stabilizes and chops sideways for a few sessions: the 210 looks more attractive — you'd be selling into mean reversion rather than into a downtrend.
• If NVDA breaks below ~$205 support with conviction: I'd stand down entirely. Selling puts into a trending breakdown is how income strategies become forced equity acquisitions at bad prices.
• If you already hold NVDA-correlated exposure: drop the strike and the size. The 195 with one contract is more honest than the 205 with three.
Practical next step:if you're pulling the trigger, work the 205 mid at $6.28 with a GTC limit slightly above mid — these tend to fill near mid during RTH given the OI.